Is The Housing Market In A Recovery?
Thursday, June 16th, 2011
The Housing Market: Spiraling Down or Recovering?
A lot is being said and reported about the “state of the real estate market.” So let me take the mystery out of the questions and put some speculation to rest. Yes, there are several positive market indicators which show that Atlanta may be in recovery.
Here’s My Recovery Recipe: 3 Ingredients
1. More Closings in 2011
First and foremost, more closings took place every month this year in 2011 than the same time last year in 2010. The tax credit was still in full effect the first part of 2010. So without a government incentive, there is a natural increase of demand in 2011 that turned into sales. Probably the biggest incentive has been the low prices and incredibly low interest rates (still in the high 4% for conforming loans).
2. Foreclosed Homes Decreasing
Second, the number of homes being foreclosed upon is also decreasing. That fact translates to less future distressed homes coming on the market months from now.
3. Less Homes On The Market (And 3 More Things To Take Note Of)
Third, the once very high inventory of homes on the market is coming down. Atlanta Metro had 11 months supply of homes on the market in December 2010. The inventory decreased to 9 months supply in May 2011. This also tells me a few things…
- More people are feeling confident in the economy that it is time to buy and take advantage the low prices and low interest rates…
- Sellers are doing what it takes to sell or they are opting to not put their house on the market…
- And houses that have tried to sell over the past year have adjusted appropriate and are getting offers.
Home Prices Still Lagging, But…
All of these facts set the stage to the market positively turning and the recovery beginning. Still lagging behind are home prices. Prices are still dropping in some aspects of the market. It may be another year before we start to see home prices increase. I attribute the low prices to distressed sales- short sales and foreclosures. 46% of all closings in the 1st Quarter of 2011 were distressed sales. That makes sense as distressed sales are often the best deals. And non-distressed sales had to compete with the distressed sale, causing home values to remain low. As these distressed sales come off the market (more are closing) and fewer distressed sales coming on (decrease in foreclosures), home prices will come up.
Atlanta Is Still Growing…
Will we be looking back a year from now with that 20/20 perspective and mark the first half of 2011 as the beginning ofAtlanta’s real estate recovery? I think so… (Remember, when you hear the national news report, they are speaking of averages. That is like saying the national temperature is 80…and all of us know that we are experiencing upper 90 degree weather these days. That being said, national averages don’t reflect reality well.) While Atlanta still needs more jobs to bring back the roaring market, we are still a growing city still attracting talent and companies. With the level of activity I’ve been seeing, I eagerly look forward to the statistics this summer will report.
What Does This Mean For Me? [Buyers, Sellers, and Homeowners]
If you or anyone you know has been on the fence to buy, this is the time to move forward. Prices are low and interest rates are at historic lows. And rent prices are starting to increase. For homeowners who want to move up in home price or move into their more permanent home, it is worth taking the hit on the list price in order to take advantage of the low price/low interest rate when purchasing their next home. Sellers should consider their local area and choose an initial listing price that reflects a high value compared to competing listings. Last but not least, should you or anyone you know finds them self in a distressed situation, there are options. I am here to help and provide a confidential consultation.
Quick Answers From Kelly
My Next Post In This Series…
Next month I’ll speak more on house prices and what areas of Atlanta are experiencing the most recovery and change. If you have questions I’d love to help you. Contact me and I’ll get back to you! Click Here: Quick Answers From Kelly
Tags: Real Estate Market Update
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